I am your friend, Dr. Charles Apoki. We speak because we are concerned, we speak because we love our country, we speak because of our grandchildren, and we speak because we owe this country. Nigeria has done a lot for me, and it pains me to see the direction in which we are headed.
Recently, I discussed the state of emergency in Rivers State. What we are witnessing is a gradual progression towards state capture. In political science, there is a term called “elite capture.” This occurs when a small group of elites seizes the wealth and resources of a nation, leaving the majority impoverished. However, for total state capture—like we see in North Korea, Uganda, Rwanda, and potentially even in the United States—certain conditions must be created and maintained.
The Steps Towards Authoritarian Rule
Create Fear: The elites sow fear among the people at regional, ethnic, and religious levels. Each group is made to believe that others are out to take their opportunities and resources. This division ensures that the people never unite against their real oppressors—the elites themselves.
Manufacture Poverty and Scarcity: By making education, jobs, and basic necessities scarce, the ruling class ensures that the people remain desperate. In the past, children from poor backgrounds had access to quality education alongside the children of the rich. Today, poor children are condemned to failing schools where they sit on the floor to learn, yet they must compete with elite children in national examinations. This creates a pool of unemployable, desperate youth who are easily manipulated.
Religious Manipulation: Desperate people turn to religious leaders, who in turn align with the political elites. These leaders promise prosperity, wealth, and miracles, keeping the people’s focus on divine intervention rather than systemic change. Many religious leaders receive political favours—appointments, contracts, and financial support—ensuring their silence or even their complicity.
Institutional Capture: To fully control a state, the elite must capture key institutions:
The Police and Military: Law enforcement becomes an arm of the ruling class, silencing dissent and intimidating opposition.
The Judiciary: Judges are underpaid and controlled, ready to give verdicts that favour the elite. Court rulings can override the democratic will of the people, making votes meaningless.
Traditional Rulers: Once the custodians of societal values, many are now financially dependent on the government, making them puppets of the political class.
Educational Institutions: Professors and administrators can be bribed to manipulate election results and suppress student activism.
Control of Public Services: Deliberate inefficiencies in electricity supply, healthcare, and security keep the population struggling for survival. This creates an atmosphere of insecurity, ensuring that people are too preoccupied with daily survival to challenge the status quo.
Election Rigging and Legislative Capture: When elections are rigged, and courts overturn valid votes, citizens lose faith in democracy. Lawmakers become rubber stamps for the executive, allowing laws that entrench authoritarian rule. The police and military serve the government rather than the people, further silencing opposition.
The Danger Ahead
If this trajectory continues, Nigeria risks falling into complete authoritarian rule, where dissent is crushed, and the state exists solely to serve a small elite. We have seen this play out in countries like Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where corrupt leadership led to revolts and long-term instability. These nations have not fully recovered from their descent into chaos.
The same pattern is repeating in Nigeria. The poor are made to fight among themselves while the elite continue to enrich themselves at their expense. Criminals, terrorists, and cultists infiltrate governance structures, from the legislature to religious institutions, making institutional conquest complete.
The Way Forward
We must resist this slide into authoritarianism. The international community must take action by freezing the assets of corrupt politicians and imposing visa bans to prevent them from enjoying the wealth they steal from Nigerians. The people must also wake up and refuse to be used as pawns in the games of the elite.
We stand at a critical juncture. If we do nothing, we will lose our country to state capture. The time to act is now.
