I woke up a few days ago and saw breaking news: US and Israel start military action in Iran. That was something I had been anticipating since the protests broke out in Iran. I had thought Donald Trump had forgotten about military action against Iran. At a point, I switched off my mind and told my wife, “One day, it will happen.”
But my mind was also playing tricks on me because of the negotiations that were going on. Deep inside me, I knew those negotiations were just an attempt for the US and Israel to properly align their forces and position things on the ground — in America, in the Middle East, and in Israel.
Nobody knows how this will end. But there are key lessons we must learn. Those who fail to learn from history are bound to repeat its mistakes.
The real “new sheriff in town” is Donald Trump — not Monday Okpebholo. The world is now a global town — in fact, a global street — and you can compress it into your phone. Donald Trump does not play. Nigerians, Nigerian leadership, Nigerian Muslims, and radical Islamic terrorists must take note of that. Any Muslim commentator must be very careful. Particularly now that their troops are on the ground. Do not play rough near any of them. You may not like him, but he is a tough guy.
Economic sanctions over the years culminated in what is happening now. They crippled the Iranian economy. A combination of oppressive radical Islamic extremism and a bad economy became a recipe for revolt, which eventually led to this invasion.
The morality of the invasion is up to you. But listen to the facts.
Nigeria was involved in the Republic of Benin. Nigeria threatened SĂŁo TomĂ© and PrĂncipe when their president was visiting Obasanjo. Nigeria was involved in Sierra Leone and Liberia and contributed to regime change. Nigeria was involved in Congo. You may say those actions were under the United Nations or ECOWAS. Question the morality if you wish — but listen to the facts.
What lessons can we learn?
A repressive regime may last for decades — this one lasted 47 years — but eventually it can fall if the people are unhappy. The initial excitement of every revolution lasts for some time. After a while, people begin to question the benefits.
Religious extremism and totalitarianism without economic development and prosperity will eventually lead to revolt. People will question leadership.
Many do not realize that the French Revolution happened after France supported the United States against the UK during the American War of Independence. Then drought came. Grains were scarce. Yet abbots and bishops demanded tithes in grain. The people were hungry while elites enjoyed luxury. Eventually, the people revolted and guillotined the king. Can this happen in Nigeria if we keep seeing intimidation? If ₦100 million is mistakenly paid into the account of the son of an Inspector General of Police from Anambra State slush funds? If we keep seeing elites displaying wealth, budgeting huge sums for cars, aircraft, foreign trips, while the people suffer?
Last year one state budgeted a small amount for health but much more for luxury items. The people are watching.
Pursue economic development over militarisation and global influence. Iran was supporting Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Islamic radicals in Mozambique and even Nigeria — while its own economy was declining. That contributed to what is happening now.
However, let us not create another Afghanistan, Libya, or Syria in Iran. It is easy to strike a regime and eliminate leadership. But consolidating political stability — even with boots on the ground — is extremely difficult.
The Western world is very strategic in thinking. The Iranians were meeting them from Geneva to other locations, yet what was in their minds was still executed. Do not be surprised if oil control is part of the calculation. Be careful. All negotiations with the United States must be handled carefully. If they say they do not want Sharia in Nigeria, be careful.
Religion has not developed any nation. Strategic thinking, intentional development plans, democratic governance, strong institutions, and punishment for corruption develop nations. Ideally, religion is personal and should not be made a state responsibility.
ran is fighting on too many fronts — Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Israel, US bases. You go tire. You cannot produce missiles and drones at the rate you are firing them. If your neighbors become your enemies, and they all respond, it becomes overwhelming.
Nigeria must learn from this.
Nigerian Muslims must be careful not to attack American interests. If you do, you are bringing a stick filled with ants into your house. If lizards come looking for the ants, do not complain. Do not start what you cannot finish. Select your fights.
You cannot enter Iran without a visa just because you are Muslim. Learn from what is happening.
If you bring Sharia to Nigeria, it will not solve economic problems. It will not solve judicial problems. It will not solve security problems. Those who stole money and took bribes — will you cut off their hands? Or will Sharia be only for the poor?
Just as Pentecostalism, orthodoxy, and Christian religious fanaticism do not automatically bring development. It is often only the elites who benefit — the iron law of the oligarchy.
